Observations on the current happenings in the world of vehicles and the fuels that power them from Fuels Institute Executive Director, John Eichberger.
Decarbonizing the Elephant in the Room – Combustion Vehicles
The pressure to decarbonize the transportation sector continues to gain momentum. The trend worldwide is to initiate policies that move away from traditional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) operating on liquid fuels towards battery operated EVs, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell EVs. And while there has been tremendous growth and investment in new vehicle technologies that can utilize potentially lower carbon energy sources, there remains a very large elephant in the room that must be addressed as well – the significant global and U.S. inventory of ICE vehicles. The question is, how large is that elephant?
Butterfly Effect and Forecasts
A friend of mine who worked for a market analysis and consulting firm at the time, and who personally produced many forecasts about the transportation market (including some for the Fuels Institute), once told me – a forecast is only as good as the assumptions used and the results are outdated as soon as they are released.